Serviceeinschränkungen vom 12.-22.02.2026 - weitere Infos auf der UB-Homepage
  • Retrospective Parameter Estima...

Treffer: Retrospective Parameter Estimation and Forecast of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States.

Title:
Retrospective Parameter Estimation and Forecast of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the United States.
Authors:
Reis J; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America., Shaman J; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America.
Source:
PLoS computational biology [PLoS Comput Biol] 2016 Oct 07; Vol. 12 (10), pp. e1005133. Date of Electronic Publication: 2016 Oct 07 (Print Publication: 2016).
Publication Type:
Journal Article
Language:
English
Journal Info:
Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101238922 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1553-7358 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 1553734X NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS Comput Biol Subsets: MEDLINE
Imprint Name(s):
Original Publication: San Francisco, CA : Public Library of Science, [2005]-
MeSH Terms:
Models, Statistical* , Proportional Hazards Models*, Disease Outbreaks/*statistics & numerical data , Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/*epidemiology , Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/*microbiology , Respiratory Syncytial Viruses/*isolation & purification, Bayes Theorem ; Computer Simulation ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Incidence ; Prognosis ; Reproducibility of Results ; Risk Assessment/methods ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; United States/epidemiology
References:
Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2012 Jan;31(1):5-9. (PMID: 21817948)
Ann Emerg Med. 2004 Dec;44(6):586-8. (PMID: 15573033)
J Pediatr. 1976 Jul;89(1):11-5. (PMID: 180274)
Sci Transl Med. 2015 Nov 4;7(312):312fs44. (PMID: 26537253)
Pediatrics. 2014 Nov;134(5):e1474-502. (PMID: 25349312)
Sci Transl Med. 2013 May 15;5(185):185ps8. (PMID: 23677590)
Epidemiol Infect. 2016 Jun;144(8):1622-33. (PMID: 26732801)
Math Biosci. 2007 Sep;209(1):222-39. (PMID: 17335858)
PLoS Pathog. 2015 Jan 08;11(1):e1004591. (PMID: 25569275)
PLoS Curr. 2014 Oct 31;6:. (PMID: 25642378)
N Engl J Med. 2009 Feb 5;360(6):588-98. (PMID: 19196675)
Pediatrics. 2007 Mar;119(3):611. (PMID: 17332214)
PLoS One. 2010 Apr 14;5(4):e10036. (PMID: 20418945)
Pediatr Pulmonol. 1998 Dec;26(6):424-8. (PMID: 9888217)
Pediatr Crit Care Med. 2007 Jul;8(4):317-23. (PMID: 17545931)
PLoS Comput Biol. 2015 Jul 30;11(7):e1004383. (PMID: 26226185)
Ann Emerg Med. 2010 Sep;56(3):261-9. (PMID: 20619500)
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2015 Sep;9(5):225-33. (PMID: 25980600)
PLoS Comput Biol. 2014 Apr 24;10(4):e1003583. (PMID: 24762780)
Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2004 Apr 1;169(7):801-5. (PMID: 14742302)
PLoS Comput Biol. 2015 Aug 28;11(8):e1004382. (PMID: 26317693)
West J Emerg Med. 2015 Jan;16(1):85-8. (PMID: 25671015)
J Am Stat Assoc. 2012;107(500):1410-1426. (PMID: 37583443)
Math Biosci. 2001 Aug;172(2):95-113. (PMID: 11520501)
Pediatrics. 2010 Jul;126(1):e116-23. (PMID: 20547651)
Epidemiol Infect. 2015 Mar;143(4):804-12. (PMID: 24901443)
Am J Epidemiol. 1983 Apr;117(4):467-74. (PMID: 6404161)
Am J Dis Child. 1986 Jun;140(6):543-6. (PMID: 3706232)
J Emerg Med. 2006 Apr;30(3):269-76. (PMID: 16677976)
Ann Emerg Med. 2011 Mar;57(3):191-200.e1-7. (PMID: 21035903)
J Healthc Manag. 2012 May-Jun;57(3):167-80; discussion 180-1. (PMID: 22724375)
Aging health. 2009 Dec 1;5(6):775. (PMID: 20174457)
Am J Respir Cell Mol Biol. 2010 Jun;42(6):697-705. (PMID: 19635930)
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 Dec 11;109(50):20425-30. (PMID: 23184969)
Antiviral Res. 2004 Sep;63(3):191-6. (PMID: 15451187)
Pediatrics. 2004 Sep;114(3):805-16. (PMID: 15342857)
Nat Commun. 2013;4:2837. (PMID: 24302074)
PLoS One. 2015 Mar 24;10(3):e0115674. (PMID: 25803450)
Grant Information:
P30 ES009089 United States ES NIEHS NIH HHS; R01 GM100467 United States GM NIGMS NIH HHS; U01 GM110748 United States GM NIGMS NIH HHS
Entry Date(s):
Date Created: 20161008 Date Completed: 20170515 Latest Revision: 20240327
Update Code:
20250114
PubMed Central ID:
PMC5055361
DOI:
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005133
PMID:
27716828
Database:
MEDLINE

Weitere Informationen

Recent studies have shown that systems combining mathematical modeling and Bayesian inference methods can be used to generate real-time forecasts of future infectious disease incidence. Here we develop such a system to study and forecast respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). RSV is the most common cause of acute lower respiratory infection and bronchiolitis. Advanced warning of the epidemic timing and volume of RSV patient surges has the potential to reduce well-documented delays of treatment in emergency departments. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model in conjunction with an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) and ten years of regional U.S. specimen data provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data and EAKF are used to optimize the SIR model and i) estimate critical epidemiological parameters over the course of each outbreak and ii) generate retrospective forecasts. The basic reproductive number, R0, is estimated at 3.0 (standard deviation 0.6) across all seasons and locations. The peak magnitude of RSV outbreaks is forecast with nearly 70% accuracy (i.e. nearly 70% of forecasts within 25% of the actual peak), four weeks before the predicted peak. This work represents a first step in the development of a real-time RSV prediction system.

JS declares partial ownership of SK Analytics.