Treffer: AI-Driven Models for Forecasting Public Expenditures in the Digital Era.

This paper proposes an innovative methodological framework that combines machine-learning and deep learning algorithms with established econometric methods for the critical problem of expenditure forecasting in the budget process. The paper aims to develop, test, and validate an artificial intelligence model capable of improving the accuracy of expenditure forecasting in the budget process and supporting financial accounting decisions in public institutions. Using historical and statistical data from a group of public institutions, the research applies both univariate and multivariate forecasting strategies, evaluated with performance metrics. The research focuses on the development of an innovative forecasting model based on AI, using historical and statistical data from public sources and case studies of local public institutions to transform them into smart cities. The selected AI algorithms include artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and deep learning models, implemented and evaluated using Python v3.14. The research results show that AI can significantly improve the accuracy of budget forecasts compared to traditional methods, such as linear regression and econometric models. The use of AI contributes to increasing transparency and accountability in the management of public funds, providing more detailed and well-founded forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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