Treffer: Transformation pathways to a carbon-neutral electricity system in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan faces significant challenges in its energy transition due to its heavy reliance on coal and a fragmented power grid. Despite substantial renewable energy potential, only 11% of electricity production came from renewables in 2022. The government aims to increase this share to 15% by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. This research explores pathways to carbon neutrality for Kazakhstan’s electricity system using scenario-based modeling. A high-resolution energy model was developed using Python for Power System Analysis (PyPSA) to simulate cost-optimal technology mixes under different climate goals. Scenarios include grid unification, increased renewable energy adoption, and hydrogen applications for domestic use and export. The baseline model was validated with industry and local research stakeholders. Results indicate that achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 is feasible at reasonable costs, with potential reductions in power costs. Higher renewable shares are achievable with grid unification and flexibility measures. Early-stage investments are crucial, and ambitious efforts beyond current climate targets can be cost-effective while enabling hydrogen production. This study demonstrates the feasibility of sophisticated energy modeling in a data-scarce region using an open-source framework. Future research could extend the model to sector coupling, incorporating electricity, heating, and gas systems for a more comprehensive energy transition strategy.